Regional   Atmospheric   Soaring   Prediction
BLIPMAP FORECASTS
For New Castle, VA
Using a locally-run WRF model with 4 km horizontal resolution and 52 vertical levels
BLIPMAPTM = Boundary Layer Information Prediction MAP
Created by Dr. John W. (Jack) Glendening, Meteorologist

Local model run by Andrew Kriz and Ron Kriz


UNDER DEVELOPMENT !
The model for the SW VA area is currently untested and is being continually being refined for usability, accuracy, location, time, etc.  The site will be undergoing changes while it is moved to a fully operational state  Feel free to contact us if there are any suggestions or problems with the website/forecasts.
Our contact info is on the BRSS member list.

The forecasts are updated early morning for the current day.  New images will replace older ones as the forecast is updated.
Be sure to check the time and date on the top of each image.

An example of a forecast with notes (click for larger image)

PARAMETER   CURRENT DAY NEXT DAY
README: Parameter Definitions
README: the most useful parameters from below
4km 4km 4km 4km  4km 4km
Thermal Parameters:
Thermal Updraft Velocity & B/S Ratio 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Thermal Updraft Velocity  (W*) 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Buoyancy/Shear Ratio 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Height of Critical Updraft Strength  (Hcrit) 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Depth of Critical Updraft Strength  (AGL Hcrit) 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
BL Top 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
BL Depth 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Thermal Height Uncertainty 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Sfc. Heating 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Normalized Sfc. Sun 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Sfc. Temperature 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Wind Parameters:
Sfc. Wind 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
BL Avg. Wind 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Wind at BL Top 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
BL Wind Shear 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
BL Max. Up/Down (Convergence) 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Cloud Parameters:
Cu Potential 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Cu Cloudbase (Sfc.LCL) [MSL] 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Cu Cloudbase where CuPotential>0 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
OD Potential 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
OD Cloudbase (BLcl) [MSL] 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
OD Cloudbase where ODPotential>0 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
BL Explicitly-predicted CloudWater 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
BL Cloud Cover 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Sfc. Dew Point Temperature 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
CAPE 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Wave/Upper-Level Parameters:
Vertical Velocity at 850mb 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Vertical Velocity at 700mb 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Vertical Velocity at 500mb 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Vert.Velocity Slice at Vert.Vel.Max 1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Soundings:
New Castle
(Sounding 1)
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Springwood
(Sounding 2)
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Waynesboro
(Sounding 3)
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Blacksburg
(Sounding 4)
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
1100 EDT
1400 EDT
1700 EDT
Model Topography 4km



Links to Further Information  

Parameter descriptions  
BASIC thermal forecast parameters  - a short and simple list of the parameters most important for thermal soaring
July 2002 SOARING magazine BLIPMAP article - a descriptive "first thing to read" for potential BLIPMAP users, giving an overview of BLIPMAP predictions